What 27 seasons of data actually buys us.
The archive does not exist to make hero picks. It exists to measure everything: it trained the model, then proved the market prices games better than the model does. That measurement is the product: honest calibration, a no-vig (margin-removed) consensus, and the one edge that survives scrutiny: never paying a worse price than you have to.
READING LIVE ENGINE OUTPUTThe pipeline this data runs
Archive
7,548 games since '99, plus our own per-book price capture.
backfill/ · raw/Calibrate
Elo + independent models fit walk-forward, never on future games.
calibrate.py · features.pyBacktest
2,671 graded ATS calls (2,608 decided), 2016–25 — model vs market, no cherry-picks.
backtest.pyDe-vig & shop
Strip the juice (margin) from every book, surface the best price per side.
lines.py · closing.pyCommit & grade
Hash-committed before kickoff, graded and revealed after.
commit.py · grade.pyThe honesty proof — model vs market, walk-forward
Cumulative against-the-spread rate across every graded backtest game. If a line stays under the 52.4% breakeven, betting it at −110 loses money. Ours does. So does a naive read of the market — which is the point: nobody on this chart clears breakeven, and we publish that instead of hiding it.
Where the edge actually is — live from the board
Because the archive holds every book's price on every game, the engine
knows the spread between books. Taking the best number instead of the worst is pure,
measurable value — no prediction required. These figures are read live from
board.json, the same
file the public board renders.
The edge in dollars — same bets, better price