Nine disclosures. They are written to be read rather than to be skipped, and they are linked from every page of this site rather than buried in a terms document. If any statement here ever conflicts with marketing copy elsewhere on this site, this page governs and the marketing copy is the error.
This site publishes statistical predictions, calibrated probabilities, and analytical tools for informational and entertainment purposes. Nothing here is betting advice, financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to place any wager or enter any transaction.
We do not tell you what to bet. We publish what our model estimates the probability of an outcome to be, alongside what the market estimates, and we publish the measured accuracy of both. What you do with that information is entirely your decision and entirely your responsibility.
We are a publisher, not a gambling operator.
We do not accept, place, broker, or facilitate bets. We do not hold customer funds, operate a wallet, run a contest with an entry fee, or pay out winnings, prizes, or anything of value based on the outcome of a sporting event. We hold no gaming licence in any jurisdiction because we conduct no activity that requires one.
Sooth is currently free to use. We do not operate a checkout, sell a paid tier, or charge for access to the analytical tools and data published here.
Every historical figure on this site - backtest results, calibration statistics, graded records - describes what has already happened. None of it predicts what will happen next.
Our published backtest covers 2,671 out-of-sample games from 2016 through 2025. In that sample, our model did not beat the closing betting market. It recorded a Brier score of 0.22151 against the de-vigged market's 0.21038, and an against-the-spread record of 1298-1310-63, or 49.77%, against a 52.38% breakeven at standard -110 pricing. The full figures and the methods behind them are on the methodology page.
We make no claim, express or implied, that using this site will make you money, reduce your losses, or improve your results. We make no win-rate claim, no return-on-investment claim, and no profitability claim of any kind. Sports betting is a losing proposition for the overwhelming majority of participants over time. Nothing on this site changes that.
Words that will never appear in our copy as descriptions of our output: guaranteed, lock, risk-free, insider, sure thing.
This site is intended for adults aged 21 or over.
Sports wagering is legal in some jurisdictions and illegal in others, and the legal minimum age differs between them. It is your responsibility to know and follow the laws that apply where you are. We do not verify your location, we do not verify your age beyond your own affirmation, and we do not encourage anyone to place a wager anywhere it is unlawful for them to do so.
Access from a jurisdiction where sports wagering is prohibited does not make reading published statistics unlawful, but it does not make wagering lawful either. When in doubt, consult the rules that apply to you.
We are an independent publisher. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or in any way officially connected to the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, the Premier League, the Ultimate Fighting Championship, Formula One, any professional or amateur sports league, any team, any athlete, or any sportsbook or gaming operator.
All league names, team names, and logos are the property of their respective owners and are used only for identification and reference. Odds and lines cited on this site are attributed to their source and are reproduced for analysis.
Gambling can be addictive. If it has stopped being entertainment for you, or if you are betting money you cannot afford to lose, help is free and confidential.
1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) - the helpline operated by the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey (CCGNJ), available 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
1-800-522-4700 - the National Problem Gambling Helpline, operated by the
National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG). Call or text, 24 hours a day. Chat
is available at ncpgambling.org/chat.
If you are in immediate crisis, call or text 988 for the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline in the United States.
Both national helplines route to local resources and are free. Most jurisdictions with legal sports wagering also operate a self-exclusion programme that blocks your access to licensed operators for a period you choose; the helplines above can explain how to enrol.
We will never present gambling as a way to make money, solve a financial problem, or recover a loss. Chasing losses is the most reliable way to make them worse.
Every prediction we publish is hashed and committed to a public SHA-256 Merkle root before the first kickoff of its slate, and that root is anchored to a third-party timestamp in a public Git repository. After the games settle we publish the predictions in full. Anyone can recompute the root from the published predictions and confirm it matches what we committed to in advance. Instructions are on the verification page.
This means our record is complete and tamper-evident. We cannot delete a losing prediction, add a winning one after the fact, or quietly change a probability.
It does not mean our predictions are accurate. Cryptographic commitment makes our reporting honest; it says nothing about the quality of the underlying model, and our own testing says that model does not beat the market.
Additional limits on what our record shows:
Under the Federal Trade Commission's Guides Concerning the Use of Endorsements and Testimonials in Advertising, specifically 16 CFR 255.5 on disclosure of material connections, we disclose the following.
Affiliate and referral relationships. Where we receive compensation for a referral, click, or sign-up from any third party, including any sportsbook, odds provider, data vendor, or software product, that relationship is disclosed clearly and conspicuously at the point of the link, not only on this page. If a link is not marked as compensated, we are not being paid for it.
No paid placement in predictions or rankings. No third party can pay to influence a published probability, a graded result, a status label, or a position in any comparison or ranking on this site. Our predictions are generated by a documented model from public data, and the model does not know who our commercial partners are.
Testimonials and reviews. We do not publish testimonials in exchange for compensation, free access, or any other consideration. Where a user statement appears on this site, it is unedited except for length, published with that person's permission, and accompanied by a disclosure of any relationship they have with us. We do not use stock imagery or invented personas to represent customers. We do not publish screenshots of winnings, ours or anyone else's, as evidence of anything.
Our own interest. We build and publish Sooth. You should still verify our claims rather than take them on trust, which is why the underlying prediction record is cryptographically verifiable rather than self-reported.
Artificial intelligence claims. We describe our system accurately. It is an Elo rating model with isotonic probability calibration, and we call it that. We do not describe it as artificial intelligence, machine learning, or a neural network, because it is none of those, and we do not attribute capabilities to it that we have not measured and published.
Every customer-facing product on Sooth is currently free. There is no paid subscription, automatic renewal, checkout, or account-only feature. If that product state changes, this disclosure and the product documentation must change before any charge is offered.
If you believe any statement on this site is inaccurate, unsubstantiated, or misleading - including anything on this page - tell us and we will correct it and publish the correction. A site whose entire proposition is verifiability has no defensible reason to leave an error standing.
Last updated 2026-08-31.