{
 "figures": {
  "window.first": "8 August 2026",
  "window.last": "1 September 2026",
  "board.n": "296",
  "board.model_over": "46.8%",
  "board.market_over": "49.1%",
  "board.actual_over": "44.3%",
  "board.mean_delta": "11.1 pts",
  "board.mean_delta_bare": "11.1",
  "board.n_disagree": "237",
  "board.disagree_of": "237 of 296",
  "board.disagree_share": "80%",
  "board.won_pct": "44.7%",
  "board.se": "3.2",
  "board.market_bias": "4.9 pts",
  "board.market_sigma": "1.7",
  "slope.flat_n": "2,647",
  "slope.flat": "+0.51",
  "slope.typical_n": "2,631",
  "slope.typical": "+0.22",
  "slope.board_n": "296",
  "slope.board": "-0.10",
  "slope.board_ci": "-0.44 to +0.24",
  "slope.board_typical": "+0.07",
  "slope.board_typical_n": "294",
  "slope.line_share": "57%",
  "slope.z_line": "4.6",
  "slope.z_select": "0.8",
  "slope.z_posted": "0.7",
  "salvage.folds": "5",
  "salvage.raw_ece": "15.1 pts",
  "salvage.raw_brier": "0.2742",
  "salvage.recal_ece": "6.4 pts",
  "salvage.recal_brier": "0.2476",
  "salvage.market_ece": "7.7 pts",
  "salvage.market_brier": "0.2454",
  "salvage.band": "38% and 54%",
  "salvage.mean": "44.3%",
  "salvage.fit_slopes": "-0.17 and -0.03",
  "cover.pitchers": "153",
  "cover.starts": "8\u201328",
  "cover.k_quotes": "4,125",
  "cover.tb_quotes": "160",
  "cover.league_line": "4.5",
  "nfl.ats": "49.8%",
  "nfl.decided": "2,608",
  "nfl.breakeven": "52.4%"
 },
 "detail": {
  "generated_at": "2026-09-07T04:47:46+00:00",
  "method": {
   "board_filter": "3+ books pricing both sides",
   "walk_forward": "projection uses only appearances before the game",
   "opponent_factor": "off - as-of opposing-team K% is not available",
   "window_through": "2026-09-01",
   "calibration_statistic": "expected calibration error (ECE)",
   "league_line": 4.5
  },
  "window": {
   "first": "2026-08-08",
   "last": "2026-09-01"
  },
  "board": {
   "n": 296,
   "ungradeable": 17,
   "n_props_seen": 313,
   "model_over": 0.4684082177714467,
   "market_over": 0.4913790610021204,
   "actual_over": 0.44256756756756754,
   "mean_abs_delta_pts": 11.069410293445078,
   "n_disagree": 237,
   "won": 106,
   "won_pct": 0.4472573839662447,
   "se_pts": 3.2478490123081545,
   "slope": -0.09869590987668367,
   "slope_se": 0.17500333218685626,
   "brier_model": 0.27415796586650926,
   "brier_market": 0.24539213604440088,
   "ece_model": 15.130665873758318,
   "ece_market": 7.708437414653376,
   "market_bias_pts": 4.881149343455288,
   "market_bias_sigma": 1.6907603014471289
  },
  "slopes": {
   "flat_line": {
    "n": 2647,
    "slope": 0.5062584237681893,
    "se": 0.03963727419049241,
    "ece": 6.320994145276881
   },
   "typical_line": {
    "n": 2631,
    "slope": 0.21625417999643368,
    "se": 0.0483322548552046,
    "ece": 10.696650176331786
   },
   "board_typical_line": {
    "n": 294,
    "slope": 0.07452088385579496,
    "se": 0.1780752784280746
   },
   "board_posted_line": {
    "n": 296,
    "slope": -0.09869590987668367,
    "se": 0.17500333218685626
   },
   "z_line_specification": 4.639551052185018,
   "z_game_selection": 0.7681281179410864,
   "z_posted_line": 0.6937726058407048
  },
  "salvage": {
   "folds": 5,
   "n_test": 296,
   "fit_slope_min": -0.17394406522862207,
   "fit_slope_max": -0.02900018994946558,
   "raw": {
    "ece": 15.130665873758318,
    "brier": 0.27415796586650926
   },
   "recalibrated": {
    "ece": 6.3782921061454445,
    "brier": 0.2476118039578526,
    "min": 0.3806456215522763,
    "max": 0.5386451058455517,
    "mean": 0.4425428430381494
   },
   "market": {
    "ece": 7.708437414653376,
    "brier": 0.24539213604440088
   }
  },
  "coverage": {
   "pitchers": 153,
   "starts_p10": 8,
   "starts_p90": 28,
   "quotes_strikeouts": 4125,
   "quotes_total_bases": 160
  },
  "nfl": {
   "ats_pct": 0.4977,
   "decided": 2608,
   "breakeven": 0.5238
  }
 }
}