{
  "slate_id": "2026-W01-nfl",
  "sport": "nfl",
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 1,
  "status": "committed",
  "models": {
    "independent": {
      "version": "elo+epa-v1+iso",
      "description": "Elo + opponent-aware EPA + rest. Does not see the betting line. This is our own opinion.",
      "backtest_brier": 0.22164,
      "backtest_ece": 0.03269
    },
    "consensus": {
      "version": "elo+epa+market-v1+iso",
      "description": "The same features plus the de-vigged market probability. Best calibrated, but largely reproduces the market.",
      "backtest_brier": 0.21399,
      "backtest_ece": 0.01858
    }
  },
  "confidence_cap": 0.85,
  "merkle_root": "4136512cf38a8074783b00f89026f6a015d88145e17fa699a3944b5b5c60709b",
  "committed_at": "2026-08-03T05:05:48.347187+00:00",
  "earliest_kickoff": "2026-09-09T20:20:00+00:00",
  "n_predictions": 32,
  "games": [
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_NE_SEA",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-09T20:20:00+00:00",
      "home": "SEA",
      "away": "NE",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "SEA",
        "prob": 0.6466,
        "fair_odds": -183
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "SEA",
        "prob": 0.703,
        "fair_odds": -237
      },
      "market_prob": 0.6369,
      "spread_line": 3.5,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": false
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_SF_LA",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-10T20:35:00+00:00",
      "home": "LA",
      "away": "SF",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "LA",
        "prob": 0.5619,
        "fair_odds": -128
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "LA",
        "prob": 0.6292,
        "fair_odds": -170
      },
      "market_prob": 0.6164,
      "spread_line": 3.5,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": false
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_CHI_CAR",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T13:00:00+00:00",
      "home": "CAR",
      "away": "CHI",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "CHI",
        "prob": 0.5787,
        "fair_odds": -137
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "CHI",
        "prob": 0.6009,
        "fair_odds": -151
      },
      "market_prob": 0.4279,
      "spread_line": -2.5,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": false
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_TB_CIN",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T13:00:00+00:00",
      "home": "CIN",
      "away": "TB",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "CIN",
        "prob": 0.5619,
        "fair_odds": -128
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "CIN",
        "prob": 0.6292,
        "fair_odds": -170
      },
      "market_prob": 0.6309,
      "spread_line": 3.5,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": false
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_NO_DET",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T13:00:00+00:00",
      "home": "DET",
      "away": "NO",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "DET",
        "prob": 0.7347,
        "fair_odds": -277
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "DET",
        "prob": 0.7631,
        "fair_odds": -322
      },
      "market_prob": 0.7258,
      "spread_line": 7.0,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": false
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_BUF_HOU",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T13:00:00+00:00",
      "home": "HOU",
      "away": "BUF",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "HOU",
        "prob": 0.5325,
        "fair_odds": -114
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "HOU",
        "prob": 0.5383,
        "fair_odds": -117
      },
      "market_prob": 0.4739,
      "spread_line": -1.5,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": true
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_BAL_IND",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T13:00:00+00:00",
      "home": "IND",
      "away": "BAL",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "BAL",
        "prob": 0.5664,
        "fair_odds": -131
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "BAL",
        "prob": 0.6375,
        "fair_odds": -176
      },
      "market_prob": 0.3836,
      "spread_line": -3.5,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": false
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_CLE_JAX",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T13:00:00+00:00",
      "home": "JAX",
      "away": "CLE",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "JAX",
        "prob": 0.7452,
        "fair_odds": -292
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "JAX",
        "prob": 0.7631,
        "fair_odds": -322
      },
      "market_prob": 0.76,
      "spread_line": 7.5,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": false
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_ATL_PIT",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T13:00:00+00:00",
      "home": "PIT",
      "away": "ATL",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "PIT",
        "prob": 0.6214,
        "fair_odds": -164
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "PIT",
        "prob": 0.6292,
        "fair_odds": -170
      },
      "market_prob": 0.6038,
      "spread_line": 3.0,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": false
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_NYJ_TEN",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T13:00:00+00:00",
      "home": "TEN",
      "away": "NYJ",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "TEN",
        "prob": 0.5619,
        "fair_odds": -128
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "TEN",
        "prob": 0.5878,
        "fair_odds": -143
      },
      "market_prob": 0.583,
      "spread_line": 3.0,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": false
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_ARI_LAC",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T16:25:00+00:00",
      "home": "LAC",
      "away": "ARI",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "LAC",
        "prob": 0.7347,
        "fair_odds": -277
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "LAC",
        "prob": 0.7631,
        "fair_odds": -322
      },
      "market_prob": 0.8271,
      "spread_line": 11.5,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": false
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_MIA_LV",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T16:25:00+00:00",
      "home": "LV",
      "away": "MIA",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "MIA",
        "prob": 0.6055,
        "fair_odds": -153
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "LV",
        "prob": 0.5383,
        "fair_odds": -117
      },
      "market_prob": 0.6447,
      "spread_line": 3.5,
      "models_disagree": true,
      "independent_vs_market": true
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_GB_MIN",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T16:25:00+00:00",
      "home": "MIN",
      "away": "GB",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "MIN",
        "prob": 0.5325,
        "fair_odds": -114
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "MIN",
        "prob": 0.5383,
        "fair_odds": -117
      },
      "market_prob": 0.4957,
      "spread_line": -1.5,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": true
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_WAS_PHI",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T16:25:00+00:00",
      "home": "PHI",
      "away": "WAS",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "PHI",
        "prob": 0.7028,
        "fair_odds": -236
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "PHI",
        "prob": 0.707,
        "fair_odds": -241
      },
      "market_prob": 0.6575,
      "spread_line": 4.5,
      "models_disagree": false,
      "independent_vs_market": false
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_DAL_NYG",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T20:20:00+00:00",
      "home": "NYG",
      "away": "DAL",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "NYG",
        "prob": 0.5075,
        "fair_odds": -103
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "DAL",
        "prob": 0.5409,
        "fair_odds": -118
      },
      "market_prob": 0.4279,
      "spread_line": -2.5,
      "models_disagree": true,
      "independent_vs_market": true
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026_01_DEN_KC",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-14T20:15:00+00:00",
      "home": "KC",
      "away": "DEN",
      "independent": {
        "pick": "DEN",
        "prob": 0.5787,
        "fair_odds": -137
      },
      "consensus": {
        "pick": "KC",
        "prob": 0.5383,
        "fair_odds": -117
      },
      "market_prob": 0.5934,
      "spread_line": 3.0,
      "models_disagree": true,
      "independent_vs_market": true
    }
  ],
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and entertainment only. We do not accept wagers. Our backtest does not beat the closing market - see /methodology."
}